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A probabilistic approach to aircraft conflict detection


M. Prandini, J. Hu, J. Lygeros, S. Sastry

IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems, vol. 1, pp. 199-220

Conflict detection and resolution schemes operating at the mid-range and short-range level of the air traffic management process are discussed. Probabilistic models for predicting the aircraft position in the near-term and mid-term future are developed. Based on the mid-term prediction model, the maximum instantaneous probability of conflict is proposed as a criticality measure for two aircraft encounters. Randomized algorithms are introduced to efficiently estimate this measure of criticality and provide quantitative bounds on the level of approximation introduced. For short-term detection, approximate closed-form analytical expressions for the probability of conflict are obtained, using the short-term prediction model. Based on these expressions, an algorithm for decentralized conflict detection and resolution that generalizes potential fields methods for path planning to a probabilistic dynamic environment is proposed. The algorithms are validated using Monte Carlo simulations


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% Autogenerated BibTeX entry
@Article { PraEtal:2000:IFA_2529,
    author={M. Prandini and J. Hu and J. Lygeros and S. Sastry},
    title={{A probabilistic approach to aircraft conflict detection}},
    journal={IEEE Transactions on Intelligent Transportation Systems},
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