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Wind Uncertainty Correlation and Aircraft Conflict Detection based on RUC-1 Forecasts


G. Chaloulos, J. Lygeros

AIAA Guidance, Navigation and Control Conference and Exhibit, Hilton Head Island, South Carolina

We present a study which examines the effect of the wind forecast uncertainty correlation on aircraft conflict probability estimation. The spatiotemporal correlation structure of the forecast uncertainty of Rapid Update Cycle - 60 (RUC-1) forecasts and discuss how it can be implemented in simulation. For several encounters we then examine the aircraft conflict probability estimation errors in cases where the correlation structure is partially or completely ignored and the wind is instead assumed to be modeled as white noise. The conclusion of the study is that wind correlation may have a significant effect under particular encounter geometries; the effect is most pronounced for planar encounters.


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