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Improved Ground Trajectory Prediction by Multi-Aircraft Track Fusion for Air Traffic Control


I. Lymperopoulos, J. Lygeros

AIAA Guidance, Navigation and Control Conference and Exhibit, Chicago, Illinois, no. AIAA-2009-5784

Trajectory Prediction (TP) plays a fundamental part in Air Traffic Control Operations. Conflict detection and resolution schemes are highly dependant on an accurate TP to provide reliable results. A method to reduce TP inaccuracies can both increase the capacity of the airspace and help retain the current high safety levels. The less accurate a TP method is, the less aircraft flights can be safely operated in the same volume of space. A main obstacle against the effort for increased accuracy is the uncertainty of weather forecasts, especially those that concern the wind. A remedy for this drawback is the exploitation of the known spatiotemporal correlation of wind prediction errors. Using this information we can built probabilistic weather maps for the present and future winds. This is possible and has been demonstrated to provide satisfactory results even for single aircraft. However, it is expected that acquiring information from multiple aircraft at different locations and time instances can lead to a more complete picture for a larger part of the airspace, thus improving even further the TP accuracy. The main challenge is to handle the abundance of information efficiently, while dealing with the estimation of a high dimensional state. Additional complications are introduced by the nonlinear dynamics of aircraft motion and control. In this paper we provide an improved version of a Particle Filter algorithm that deals with these problems and provides efficient TP using only ground radar measurements. The algorithm exploits the structure of the problem to improve efficiency and eliminate the well known particle degeneracy problem, while successfully integrating information from multiple aircraft and increasing TP accuracy.


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% Autogenerated BibTeX entry
@InProceedings { LymLyg:2009:IFA_3471,
    author={I. Lymperopoulos and J. Lygeros},
    title={{Improved Ground Trajectory Prediction by Multi-Aircraft
	  Track Fusion for Air Traffic Control}},
    booktitle={AIAA Guidance, Navigation and Control Conference and
    address={Chicago, Illinois},
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