Note: This content is accessible to all versions of every browser. However, this browser does not seem to support current Web standards, preventing the display of our site's design details.


Multilinear Singular Value Decomposition of Space- and Time-Coupled Weather Forecasts



Annika Eichler, Joe Warrington

Efficient real-time operation of power systems is made increasingly difficult by the growth of intermittent renewable energy sources (primarily wind and solar power). In order to forecast these power, numerical weather prediction models are able to run multiple scenarios of wind speed and solar radiation. These weather forecasts are coupling time and space in different expected scenarios.
The forecasts represent a huge amount of data that can (in principle) be used to drive a real-time power system optimization algorithm. In particular, variations between the scenarios in the ensemble forecast can be used to assess the uncertainty in the prediction of wind and solar power output. Sizing such uncertainty is critical to procuring an appropriate amount of reserves and deciding how to operate conventional generators and storage devices around the intermittent power infeeds. However, use of the full forecast data set will lead to an intractable optimization problem. Therefore, a low-dimensional representation of the forecast data is needed.
The multidimensional forecast information can be naturally represented as a three-dimensional tensor with the dimensions being space, time and the scenarios. For a low-dimensional representation a multilinear singular value decomposition is to be applied to incorporate the coupling in time and space, which extends the concept of singular value decomposition of matrices as it is applied in previous work, see this paper.

Mode analysis of wind power forecast errors for 336 wind farms located across Britain, derived from ensemble forecast outputs.

Weitere Informationen

John Lygeros

Art der Arbeit: 70% theory, 30% implementation
Voraussetzungen: Some optimization knowledge is beneficial, and interest in working with large data sets would be a plus
Anzahl StudentInnen: 1
Status: open
Projektstart: Spring 2018
Semester: Autumn 2017